Trump’s attacks on central bank threaten its independence − and that isn’t good news for sound economic stewardship (or battling inflation)

  Nearly every country in the world has a central bank – a public institution that manages a country’s currency and its monetary policy. And these banks have an extraordinary amount of power. By controlling the flow of money and credit in a country, they can affect economic growth, inflation, employment, and financial stability.

  These are powers that many politicians – including, currently, U.S. President Donald Trump – would seemingly like to control or at least manipulate. That’s because monetary policy can provide governments with economic boosts at key times, such as around elections or during periods of falling popularity.

Is the pandemic over? We asked an economist, an education expert and a public health scholar their views

  President Joe Biden’s declaration that “the pandemic is over” raised eyebrows and the hackles of some experts who think such messaging could be premature and counterproductive.

  But to many Americans who have long since returned to pre-COVID 19 activities and are now being forced back into the office, the remark may ring true.

  The problem is that what “back to normal” feels like may differ from person to person, depending on the individual’s circumstances and by what criteria they are judging the pandemic to be over. The Conversation asked three scholars of different parts of U.S. society affected by the pandemic – public health, education, and the economy – to evaluate just how “over” the pandemic is in their worlds. This is what they said:

How raising interest rates curbs inflation – and what could possibly go wrong

  After about three decades of relatively low inflation, consumer prices are skyrocketing again.

  The price of gasoline, for example, was up 40% in January 2022 from a year earlier, while used cars and trucks jumped 41%, according to data released on Feb. 10, 2022. Other categories experiencing high inflation include hotels, eggs, and fats and oils, up 24%, 13%, and 11%, respectively. On average, prices climbed about 7.5%, the fastest pace of inflation since 1982.

Vast majority of American workers like their jobs – even as a record number quit them

   A record share of American workers is quitting their jobs, thanks in part to a strong economy and a labor shortage.

  Does that mean Americans are unhappy with where they work?

  The answer would seem to be yes, according to many economists and other observers. That’s the narrative driving the Great Resignation, in which workers are simply fed up with their current jobs and demanding something better.

4 reasons Americans are still seeing empty shelves and long waits – with Christmas just around the corner

  Walk into any U.S. store these days and you’re likely to see empty shelves.

  Shortages of virtually every type of product – from toilet paper and sneakers to pickup trucks and chicken – are showing up across the country. Looking for a book, bicycle, baby crib, or boat? You may have to wait weeks or months longer than usual to get your hands on it.

Forget the American Dream – millions of working Americans still can’t afford food and rent

  The Biden administration is likely celebrating a better-than-expected jobs report, which showed surging employment and wages. However, for millions of working Americans, being employed doesn’t guarantee a living income.

  As scholars interested in the well-being of workers, we believe that the economy runs better when people aren’t forced to choose between paying rent, buying food, or getting medicine. Yet too many are compelled to do just that.

Why Republicans and others concerned about the economy have reason to celebrate Biden in the White House

  On day one, a newly inaugurated President Joe Biden will have to address a devastated economy – much like he and former President Barack Obama did a decade ago.

  What can the country expect?

  Forecasting how the economy will perform under a new president is generally a fool’s errand. How much or how little credit the person in the White House deserves for the health of the economy is a matter of debate, and no economist can confidently predict how the president’s policies will play out – if they even go into effect – or what challenges might emerge.

Fed’s rate cut signals a recession may be ahead – and it may not have enough ammunition to fight it

  The Federal Reserve seems a lot more concerned about the state of the economy than it’s been letting on.

  The Fed lowered its target interest rate by a quarter-point on Sept. 18, the second such cut since July – and the first reductions since the Great Recession more than 10 years ago.

  Judging by the words of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, this isn’t that big a deal. In his statement following the decision, he said: “We took this step to help keep the U.S. economy strong in the face of some notable developments and to provide insurance against ongoing risks.”

What we know about DACA recipients in the United States

  Two years ago, the Trump administration announced an end to Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA), leaving hundreds of thousands of young undocumented immigrants in the dark. Despite President Donald Trump’s promise that he had “great heart” when it came to Dreamers, DACA recipients and their families face an uncertain future. Congress remains unable to enact permanent protections for them, and the U.S. Supreme Court is preparing to hear arguments in November to determine whether the administration’s rescission effort was unlawful.

How much damage will come from this trade war?

  First, the good news: the U.S. and world economies have not imploded, so far, as fallout from the rising trade tensions between the Trump administration and Xi Jinping’s government in China. Now, the bad news: there is no certainty that this will not play itself out as a serious and damaging trade war between the two countries that might spill over into grievous harm to many other parts of the world as well.

  From the day that Donald Trump became president, he has been telling the American people and everyone else that he believes that national economic prosperity requires seeing international trade as a zero-sum game. In his mind, the buying and selling of goods and the investing of capital across political lines on a map of the world is economic combat creating winners and losers.

Jacob G. Hornberger: A basic principle about capital

  Imagine a farm in an impoverished country, a farm where the workers are using hoes to do their work in the fields. The farm produces 1000 bushels of wheat a year, which is sold for $10,000. The farmer’s income statement reads as follows:

DACA recipients’ economic and educational gains continue to grow

  Since it was first announced on June 15, 2012, the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) policy has provided temporary relief from deportation as well as work authorization to approximately 800,000 undocumented young people across the country. As research has consistently shown, DACA has not only improved the lives of undocumented young people and their families but has also positively affected the economy more generally, which benefits all Americans.

Economic impacts of removing unauthorized immigrant workers

  In every state and in every industry across the United States, immigrants—authorized and unauthorized—are contributing to the U.S. economy. Immigrant labor and entrepreneurship are believed to be powerful forces of economic revitalization for communities struggling with population decline. Estimates suggest that the total number of unauthorized immigrants currently residing in the United States is approximately 11.3 million, or about 3.5 percent of the total 2015 resident population of 324.4 million. Of those 11.3 million, we estimate that 7 million are workers. What is the economic contribution of these unauthorized workers? What would the nation stand to lose in terms of production and income if these workers were removed and returned to their home countries?

Richard M. Ebeling: Americans see big corruption in big business

  A recently released report on the degree of confidence that Americans have in the country’s leading political and economic institutions shows that few of these institutions are held in high regard by the public.

  The survey was conducted by NORC, a respected research organization at the University of Chicago. It was found that only 11 percent of those asked expressed significant confidence in the institution of the presidency of the United States. About 23 percent of the citizenry expressed positive confidence in the Supreme Court. But, seemingly, no one has confidence in the United States Congress. Only seven percent of Democrats and five percent of Republicans expressed any great deal of confidence in the legislative branch of the federal government.

Adam Hersh: Bad policy choices, not bad weather, restraining job growth

  Employment growth rebounded in February, according to last week's employment situation report (PDF) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, proving economists wrong—people can actually work in the cold and snow. The U.S. economy added 175,000 new jobs in February, and revised figures show job growth averaging just 129,000 jobs per month over the past three months.

  Job growth is trending in the right direction, although still short of what is needed to return the U.S. labor market to full employment or drive real wage gains in the near future. The unemployment rate overall crept up one notch to 6.7 percent as more people returned to the labor force, but the number of people employed relative to the overall population remained unchanged.

Adam Hersh: Stable economic footing should focus agenda on inclusive prosperity

  Economic growth is returning the United States to more stable footing, but stronger growth is not translating into the dream of widely shared prosperity and opportunity for all Americans, articulated last week by President Barack Obama during the State of the Union address. U.S. gross domestic product, or GDP—the sum total of goods and services produced by workers and equipment in the United States—grew 3.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013, following growth of 4.1 percent in the third quarter, according to new Bureau of Economic Analysis, or BEA, data.

Adam Hersh: Weak report underscores need to extend jobless benefits

  Though recent economic data have signaled a strengthening U.S. economy through the end of 2013, new data released this week from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show that the economic recovery has yet to turn the corner. U.S. employers added a mere 74,000 jobs in December, slowing sharply from previous months. Waning job growth did not appear to be the result of inclement weather, as seasonal hiring maintained patterns similar to previous years.

  With job growth still so tepid and volatile, Congress must waste no more time in extending emergency unemployment insurance to the 1.3 million workers heartlessly and thoughtlessly kicked to the curb when this program expired on Dec. 28. Some 72,000 unemployed workers are expected to lose benefits each week of 2014 that Congress does not act.

50 Years after LBJ’s War on Poverty

  Fifty years ago, President Lyndon B. Johnson declared an "unconditional War on Poverty" in his State of the Union address on January 8, 1964. The War on Poverty created a number of important federal and state initiatives that remain in place today—from Head Start to nutrition assistance to Medicare and Medicaid. These initiatives, coupled with the civil rights advances of the era and the overall strong economy in the 1960s, led to a reduction in the number of people living in poverty from around 19 percent to a historic low of 11.1 percent by the early 1970s.

Ianta Summers: Working to stay poor

  I have a friend who works at Foot Locker—the successful international retail chain of more than 3,300 stores—who is struggling to make ends meet.

  He’s an assistant manager at a store in a suburb of Washington, D.C. He told me he earns $7.55 an hour for a 40-hour work week. In addition, he said he gets a twp percent commission on sales, discounts on in-store purchases, stock options, and health care. My friend does well, selling dozens of pairs of sneakers every pay period that cost as much as $250 each. But even if those benefits seem generous, when his check reaches his pocket, he doesn’t have enough money to support himself—or a family.

Adam Hersh: Most new jobs don’t pay a middle-class wage

  Last week the Bureau of Labor Statistics released new data about the October employment situation that show the surprising resilience of U.S. labor markets—even as extreme conservatives in Congress risked economic calamity by hijacking the political debate. The U.S. economy added 204,000 net new jobs in October, even with the loss of 12,000 federal workers from the public service. Although the government shutdown disrupted administration of these economic surveys, the data do not appear to be systematically affected, according to the BLS.