Many states in the union point to the presidential
year as their big year. They have their governors running concurrently with the
president. That is not the case here in the Heart of Dixie. Our founding
fathers appear intuitive in retrospect. They somehow envisioned that we would
be more interested in who is our governor, sheriff or state representative than
who is president when they put all of our good races in our gubernatorial
years.
Historically, more people have shown up to vote for
governor than president in Alabama. So what do we have to look forward to next
year besides the governor’s race?
It has gone completely under the radar but our junior
senator Jeff Sessions is up for election next year. Sessions will probably only
have token opposition. He has voted lockstep with most Alabama voters on all
issues since his arrival on the Potomac.
Sessions is considered one of the three most conservative
senators in Washington. That is appropriate since we are one of the most
conservative states in America. He is a safe bet to return to the senate for
another six years.
In the past the job of lieutenant governor was a
very powerful post in state politics. They not only presided over the state
senate, they actually controlled this important decision making institution.
The lieutenant governor appointed all the committees, assigned all the bills
and controlled the flow of legislation. That power was stripped in the 1990 and
taken back by the senate. The president pro tem of the majority party now holds
that power. That is Senator Del Marsh (R-Anniston). The lieutenant governor
still has the gavel and has taken to this role effectively. She is in a good
position to garner a second term.
The best launching pad to land in the governor’s
office or the U.S. Senate is from the office of attorney general. Luther
Strange is in good shape to win a second four-year term as attorney general.
Luther spent the first two decades of his career as a Washington corporate
lobbyist. Therefore, those who know him best believe that his ultimate ambition
is to take a seat in the U.S. Senate. He developed a close friendship with Senators
Richard Shelby and Jeff Sessions during his Washington years. The problem
Luther has is that neither Shelby nor Sessions have any plans to retire anytime
soon.
Sessions is a prohibitive favorite to win reelection
this year and Shelby has made it clear that he has no intentions of retiring.
He has already said he plans to seek reelection in 2016. He adheres to the old
saying that was delivered by veteran stalwart southern senators of bygone
years, “I’m only leaving Washington by one of two routes – by the ballot box or
in a pine box.” The latter is the likeliest route for Shelby.
Big Luther is not a spring chicken. He is fast
approaching 60 and that is not the optimum age to embark on a senatorial
career. Given the importance of seniority in Washington, he would never really
be able to be a player. The 2018 governor’s race is probably Luther’s logical
route, assuming he wins reelection as attorney general in the coming year.
As the state’s top prosecutor he has stepped on some big toes. However, he
should be a safe bet for reelection.
Last week we looked at the governor’s race. This
week we discussed the reelection chances of the lieutenant governor and
attorney general. My assessment thus far is that Gov. Robert Bentley, Lt. Gov.
Kay Ivey and Attorney General Luther Strange are in good shape to win
reelection next year.
Next week we will look at the offices of treasurer,
agriculture commissioner, secretary of state and state auditor. In addition, we
have a couple of state judicial contests on the menu as well as the all-important
legislative races.
See you next week.
About the author: Steve Flowers is Alabama’s leading
political columnist. His column appears weekly in more than 70 Alabama
newspapers. Steve served 16 years in the state legislature. He may be reached
at http://www.steveflowers.us.
No comments:
Post a Comment