From the beginning of the 2016 “silent primary” of
fundraisers, buzz, and public opinion, the vast majority of figurative money
has been on Secretary Clinton over Vice President Biden. Despite repeated
denials of interest in a second presidential run, she has long seemed the most
obvious pick, considering how close she came to being the nominee in 2008.
However, with the Benghazi attack in September of
last year, Clinton seemed to fade somewhat from her pinnacle of popularity,
both as a Secretary of State and as a once-and-possibly-future presidential
contender. At the same time, Biden in the last few months has seen somewhat of
a renaissance.
The truth is that few were even seriously discussing
the possibility of a Biden run in 2016 (when he would be 73) until his presence
at the inaugural parade made it utterly clear that he still considers himself a
contender.
Eagerly waving to the crowd and shaking hands,
literally running down the road to meet yet another group of onlookers: this
was a septuagenarian who either does not feel his age or does not want the
American people to think he feels his age.
But it is widely acknowledged--even by many of
Biden’s own supporters--that a Clinton presidential bid in the next election
season would effectively rule out Biden’s own chances at becoming President
Obama’s successor.
Virtually every poll taken of the American public
shows a higher favorability rating for Clinton than for Biden. One of the most
recent, an ABC News/Washington Post poll released last week, has Hillary
Clinton’s personal favorability at a whopping 67 percent favorable, 26 percent
unfavorable. Biden, at 48-37%, still holds a net favorable rating that
nonetheless ranks a net 19 points below his nearest competitor.
Furthermore, Biden’s aforementioned age problem
becomes a bigger barrier every year. Outward displays of vigor can regain him
only so much ground. He would be 74 on January 20, 2017, when he would take his
inaugural oath should he be elected in 2016.
That would make a President Biden the oldest ever to
be inaugurated for a second term, five years older than the current holder of
that record, Ronald Reagan, who was 69 when he began his first term in 1981.
Hillary, by contrast, will be 69 on Inauguration Day
2017—still quite old, in historical terms, for a first-term president, but
younger than Biden by half a decade.
The biggest hurdle between Biden and a 2016
presidential election victory has less to do with physical age and more with
the age of his political mindset, at least compared to Clinton’s. Despite being
only four years older than Clinton, Biden has a relatively old-school mindset
about how American politics works, particularly about how to run for president.
Biden’s two presidential campaigns, in 1988 and 2008,
both shaped and reflected this philosophy: lots of glad-handing and getting out
among the public, in coffee shops and diners and at parades and public events.
He was inordinately concerned with the quality of
his billboards, television advertisements, and campaign mailings. Yet Biden
showed very little interest in the sort of massive on-the-ground networking and
campaigning that became Obama for America’s trump card when it came down to the
small groups of delegates in states like Montana and South Dakota that
eventually won him the nomination.
Hillary, unlike Biden, survived long enough into the
2008 race to see the true damage Obama and his type of organization were
capable of. She, of all people, would know well the opportunities and advantage
inherent in modeling her campaign on that of the one that so stunningly
vanquished her five years ago.
Biden would be more likely to simply balk at the
internet- and technology-heavy Obama for America campaign model. In the
post-Obama political landscape, however, doing so would be electoral suicide
for his campaign and the Democratic Party as a whole.
None of this, however, is likely to persuade Biden -
two years from now as the campaign season begins in early 2015 - that the party
(and the country) would be better off without a 2016 campaign by him. Only a
Clinton campaign can keep Biden out of the ring with any share of certainty.
In the end, as many have said both in the papers and
on TV, the 2016 Democratic Party nomination for president may come down to a
quiet chat between the Vice President and the soon-to-be-former Secretary of
State, sometime in 2014 or 2015.
Biden will likely come to Clinton asking whether or
not she will be running for the nomination. Her answer will influence both the
outcome of the presidential election as well as the course of history.
For the Democratic Party’s sake, hope her answer is
yes. And, as Iowa Democratic Party chair Sue Dvorsky said, “Things are frozen
in place until she makes a decision.”
It has become clear that a campaign centered on the
internet and networking is required to win a US presidential election in the
21st century. Hillary Clinton, despite her age and her husband (or, perhaps,
partly because of her husband), is the most 21st-century candidate considering
a run in 2016—and is, thus, the most viable candidate as well.
About the author: Ian M. MacIsaac is a staff writer
for the Capital City Free Press. He is a history major at Auburn University,
and former co-editor of the AUMnibus, the official Auburn-Montgomery student
newspaper.
Copyright © Capital City Free Press
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